The Real Hero's Journey

"Intention and Obstacle. Just the basics of somebody wants something, something is standing in their way of getting it.” 

Alexander Sorkin

Kurt Vonnegut, “Make a character want something on the first page, even if it’s only a glass of water.”

It can be internal or external.

External: Skywalker, Frodo, Dorothy

Internal:  Good Will Huning

External intentions can be:

Overcoming Fear Seeking Acceptance Realizing Self-Worth

Sandpiles

 Everything works until suddenly it doesn’t. As Minsky said, stability breeds instability. Then one additional grain of sand triggers a collapse.

Complex systems are inherently fragile. The optimization that makes them cost-effective also removes the redundancies that make them resilient. Things can fall apart quickly when some unforeseen event occurs. Or an unforeseen sequence of events, which is what’s happened.

Stop Procrastinating

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<a href="https://www.enchantingmarketing.com/how-to-stop-procrastinating/"><img src="https://www.enchantingmarketing.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/how to stop procrastinating infographic.jpg" width="720" alt="How to Stop Procrastinating"></a>

<p><strong>How to Stop Procrastinating</strong>, courtesy of <a href="https://www.enchantingmarketing.com/how-to-stop-procrastinating/">Henneke at Enchanting Marketing</a></p>

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Bob Farrell’s Rules for Trading

Bob Farrell’s Rules for Trading

Bob Farrell was a widely followed genius at Merrill Lynch. Wall Street people still speak of him reverently. Some of the greatest traders and investors I know referred to his rules on a frequent basis, and I suggest you do the same. Here are his rules with commentary from MarketWatch’s Jonathan Burton.

Recopied from Mauldin Economics Advice Worth Taking

1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time
   
   By "return to the mean," Farrell means that when stocks go too far in one direction, they come back. If that sounds elementary, then remember that both euphoric and pessimistic markets can cloud people's heads.
   "It's so easy to get caught up in the heat of the moment and not have perspective," says Bob Doll, global chief investment officer for equities at money manager BlackRock Inc. "Those that have a plan and stick to it tend to be more successful."

2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction
   
   
   Think of the market as a constant dieter who struggles to stay within the desired weight range but can't always hit the mark.
   "In the 1990s when we were advancing by 20% per year, we were heading for disappointment," says Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor's Inc. "Sooner or later, you pay it back."

3. There are no new eras -- excesses are never permanent
   
   
   This harkens to the first two rules. Many investors try to find the latest hot sector, and soon a fever builds that "this time it's different." Of course, it never really is. When that sector cools, individual shareholders are usually among the last to know and are forced to sell at lower prices.
   "It's so hard to switch and time the changes from one sector to another," says John Buckingham, editor of The Prudent Speculator newsletter. "Find a strategy that you believe in and stay put."

4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways
   
   
   This is Farrell's way of saying that a popular sector can stay hot for a long while, but will fall hard when a correction comes. Chinese stocks not long ago were market darlings posting parabolic gains, but investors who came late to this party have been sorry.

5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom
   
   
   Sure, and if they didn't, contrarian-minded investors would have nothing to crow about. Accordingly, many market technicians use sentiment indicators to gauge investor pessimism or optimism, then recommend that investors head in the opposite direction.

6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve
   
   
   Investors can be their own worst enemy, particularly when emotions take hold.
   Stock market gains "make us exuberant; they enhance well-being and promote optimism," says Meir Statman, a finance professor at Santa Clara University in California who studies investor behavior. "Losses bring sadness, disgust, fear, regret. Fear increases the sense of risk and some react by shunning stocks."
   After grim trading days, it's easy to think you're the patsy at this card table. To counter those insecure feelings, practice self-control and keep long-range portfolio goals in perspective. That will help you to be proactive instead of reactive.
   "It's critical for investors to understand how they're cut," says the Prudent Speculator's Buckingham. "If you can't handle a 15% or 20% downturn, you need to rethink how you invest."

7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names
   
   Markets and individual sectors can move in powerful waves that take all boats up or down in their wake. There's strength in numbers, and such broad momentum is hard to stop, Farrell observes. In these conditions, you either lead, follow or get out of the way.
   When momentum channels into a small number of stocks, it means that many worthy companies are being overlooked and investors essentially are crowding one side of the boat. That's what happened with the "Nifty 50" stocks of the early 1970s when much of the U.S. market's gains came from the 50 biggest companies on the New York Stock Exchange. As their price-to-earnings ratios climbed to unsustainable levels, these "one-decision" stocks eventually sunk.

8. Bear markets have three stages -- sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend

9. When all the experts and forecasts agree -- something else is going to happen
   
   
   As Stovall, the S&P investment strategist, puts it: "If everybody's optimistic, who is left to buy? If everybody's pessimistic, who's left to sell?"
   Going against the herd as Farrell repeatedly suggests can be very profitable, especially for patient buyers who raise cash from frothy markets and reinvest it when sentiment is darkest.
10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets
    No Kidding

Gartman Trading Rules

The Gartman Rules

Several different versions of Gartman’s rules are floating around the internet. This one is my favorite. Note that Dennis is first and foremost a trader, so these are rules for traders but also offer insight to investors.

Recopied from Mauldin Economics Advice Worth Taking

1. NEVER, EVER, EVER ADD TO A LOSING POSITION: EVER!: Adding to a losing position eventually leads to ruin, remembering Enron, Long Term Capital Management, Nick Leeson and myriad others.
2. TRADE LIKE A MERCENARY SOLDIER: As traders/investors we are to fight on the winning side of the trade, not on the side of the trade we may believe to be economically correct. We are pragmatists first, foremost and always.
3. MENTAL CAPITAL TRUMPS REAL CAPITAL: Capital comes in two forms... mental and real... and defending losing positions diminishes one’s finite and measurable real capital and one’s infinite and immeasurable mental capital accordingly and always.
4. WE ARE NOT IN THE BUSINESS OF BUYING LOW AND SELLING HIGH: We are in the business of buying high and selling higher, or of selling low and buying lower. Strength begets strength; weakness more weakness.
5. IN BULL MARKETS ONE MUST TRY ALWAYS TO BE LONG OR NEUTRAL: The corollary, obviously, is that in bear markets one must try always to be short or neutral. There are exceptions, but they are very, very rare.
6. "MARKETS CAN REMAIN ILLOGICAL FAR LONGER THAN YOU OR I CAN REMAIN SOLVENT:" So said Lord Keynes many years ago and he was... and is... right, for illogic does often reign, despite what the academics would have us believe.
7. BUY THAT WHICH SHOWS THE GREATEST STRENGTH; SELL THAT WHICH SHOWS THE GREATEST WEAKNESS: Metaphorically, the wettest paper sacks break most easily and the strongest winds carry ships the farthest, fastest.
8. THINK LIKE A FUNDAMENTALIST; TRADE LIKE A TECHNICIAN: Be bullish... or bearish... only when the technicals and the fundamentals, as you understand them, run in tandem.
9. TRADING RUNS IN CYCLES; SOME GOOD, MOST BAD: In the “Good Times” even one’s errors are profitable; in the inevitable “Bad Times” even the most well-researched trade shall go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it and move on.
10. KEEP YOUR SYSTEMS SIMPLE: Complication breeds confusion; simplicity breeds elegance and profitability.
11. UNDERSTANDING MASS PSYCHOLOGY IS ALMOST ALWAYS MORE IMPORTANT THAN UNDERSTANDING ECONOMICS: Or more simply put, "When they’re cryin’ you should be buyin’ and when they’re yellin’ you should be sellin’!"
12. REMEMBER, THERE IS NEVER JUST ONE COCKROACH: The lesson of bad news is that more shall follow... usually hard upon and always with worsening impact.
13. BE PATIENT WITH WINNING TRADES; BE ENORMOUSLY IMPATIENT WITH LOSERS: Need we really say more?
14. DO MORE OF THAT WHICH IS WORKING AND LESS OF THAT WHICH IS NOT: This works well in life as well as trading. If there is a “secret” to trading... and to life... this is it.
15. CLEAN UP AFTER YOURSELF: Need we really say more? Errors only get worse.
16. SOMEONE’S ALWAYS GOT A BIGGER JUNKYARD DOG: No matter how much “work” we do on a trade, someone knows more and is more prepared than are we... and has more capital!
17. PAY ATTENTION: The market sends signals more often than not missed and/or disregarded... so pay attention!
18. WHEN THE FACTS CHANGE, CHANGE! Lord Keynes... again... once said that “ When the facts change, I change; what do you do, Sir?” When the technicals or the fundamentals of a position change, change your position, or at least reduce your exposure and perhaps exit entirely.
19. ALL RULES ARE MEANT TO BE BROKEN: But they are to be broken only rarely and true genius comes with knowing when, where and why!

Improving Writing Skills

This is from Enchanting Marketing, Go there for details.


29 Ways to Improve Your Writing Skills and Escape Content Mediocrity, courtesy of Henneke at Enchanting Marketing

Reid technique: Nine Steps of Interrogation

Edit

The Reid technique's nine steps of interrogation are:^[5]

1. Direct confrontation. Advise the suspect that the evidence has led the police to the individual as a suspect. Offer the person an early opportunity to explain why the offense took place.
2. Try to shift the blame away from the suspect to some other person or set of circumstances that prompted the suspect to commit the crime. That is, develop themes containing reasons that will psychologically justify or excuse the crime. Themes may be developed or changed to find one to which the accused is most responsive.
3. Try to minimize the frequency of suspect denials.
4. At this point, the accused will often give a reason why he or she did not or could not commit the crime. Try to use this to move towards the acknowledgement of what they did.
5. Reinforce sincerity to ensure that the suspect is receptive.
6. The suspect will become quieter and listen. Move the theme of the discussion towards offering alternatives. If the suspect cries at this point, infer guilt.
7. Pose the "alternative question", giving two choices for what happened; one more socially acceptable than the other. The suspect is expected to choose the easier option but whichever alternative the suspect chooses, guilt is admitted. As stated above, there is always a third option which is to maintain that they did not commit the crime.
8. Lead the suspect to repeat the admission of guilt in front of witnesses and develop corroborating information to establish the validity of the confession.
9. Document the suspect's admission or confession and have him or her prepare a recorded statement (audio, video or written).

Cognitive Bias

Buster Benson wrote a great article with a Cognitive Bias Cheat Sheet. You can find it here.

Then  John Manoogian III diagrammed it.

Here is the standard editing system, from larger to smaller scale, which means from to the first to the last step, as shown in RideThePen.

1. Developmental Editing:  This step refers to storytelling. If you think anything is wrong with your plot, characters, motivations… those are the first things you have to take care of. They will often require a lot of re-writing. I’m a big fan of coming in prepared and only starting to write once you know your story and your characters very well. This will almost completely spare you any developmental editing. Yay! The best checklist for developmental editing you can find anywhere (in my opinion) was created by yours truly, and you can download the PDF here for free.
2. Line Editing: The second step zooms in a bit more, and deals with paragraph structure, sentence flow, choice of words, etc… How does your language sound and flow? Editing gets really interesting here. Don’t be afraid to re-write entire paragraphs, especially if you are new to writing. You will be so much happier with your story in the end, and you will learn a lot during the process.
3. Copy Editing: We are moving closer to simple mechanics here. This is about grammar and punctuation, and in most cases, you can objectively tell what’s right or wrong. Don’t hesitate to outsource this step, and also the following final one, if you can afford it. It won’t take anything away from your creative work, and you will save yourself much of the boredom of editing.
4. Proofreading: As the last step, check for typos. It needs to be done in order to look professional. No excuse – yes, I’m talking to you! As a reader, you probably know that too many typos in a text are annoying as hell and can throw you out of the illusion fast. So just do it.

Augutines Doctrine of Grace

"Sinful man depends, for his recovery to good and to God, entirely on the free grace of God; this grace is therefore indispensable, prevenient, irresistible, indefectible; and, being thus the free grace of God, must have lain, in all the details of its conference and working, in the intention of God from all eternity.”
 — Warfield, Studies in Tertullian and Augustine, p. 130; Warfield, Calvin and Augustine, p. 322.

Machowicz’s Training Pyramid

Richard "Mack" Machowicz’s Training Pyramid goes 
Correct Fundamentals,
Concentration,
Consistency,
Accuracy, 
Speed
--In that order.

Don't work on any step until you have mastered the prior step.

How to Streamline Your Writing Process

How to Streamline Your Writing Process, courtesy of Henneke at Enchanting Marketing

Looking for great content?

Sally Hogshead, of Fascinate fame, has published a great blog post entitled 21 Juicy Ideas for Fascinating Content.

Here are a couple of her points. Then go look at her article.

1. Start with information, then add insight

Information is good, but it’s not enough to establish your thought leadership. If you and I can both search for the same information, that “content” isn’t content — it’s a commodity. Step it up a notch by adding insight to your message.

2. Show us the implications of a trend

Enlighten us. Connect the dots. For example, “Here’s something on the horizon: ___, and here’s what it means for you and your business: ___.” Give us your interpretation. Point us toward what we need to pay attention to.

3. Go on a rant

Show us a point of view that you feel strongly about. Make a fuss about a problem. A passionate voice vividly communicates what you believe and why we should care.

She has a whole lot more. Go check it out.

Mountaineering

"A climb is no fun unless there has been one moment at which you have sworn that if once you get down alive you will never go up a mountain again."
-- Anonymous

Grinding for the Man

"And I'll tell you one more thing. If all you're doing is grinding for the man, it's going to burden you. Once you say, 'Hey, I'm grinding for the man but I'm putting money away, and this is part of my exit strategy', you're working for you." 

-- Jocko Willink

As quoted in an interview with James Altucher.

Negotiate, Fight, or Flight

It has been observed that one of the differences between the "street-wise" and the rest of us is that we often negotiate our way out of difficult circumstances while the street-wise rarely negotiate and will choose to either fight or flee.

Robert Mnookin has written a book, Bargaining with the Devil, that gives a formal framework for the negotiate or else decision. He is the chair of the Program on Negotiations at the Harvard Law School, so he is a pretty good source.

His basic framework is that you need to dispassionately (emotions always get in the way of logic) think about five points:

1. What are my interests and what are my adversaries interests?
2. What are my alternatives to negotiation and what are my adversaries alternatives? [Understand your, and his, BATNA's.]
3. Is there a potential deal that is better than the BATNA for each of us?
4. What will it cost me to negotiate? Not all costs are in dollars. Time, emotion, reputation, and self-image are also factors.
5. If we reach a deal, is there a reasonable prospect that it will be carried out? You can always put penalties for nonperformance from third parties in the deal.

Think about these before you make a fight or flight decision.

Outline for business stories

From Enchanting Marketing.

Define the four key moments of your business story:

• Which problem do you solve?
• Which insight sparked the start (or pivoting) of your business?
• What are you doing now to fix the problem?
• What’s your mission?

Then add details to bring your story to life.
Skip everything that's irrelevant to understand ing the plot.

The Order of Modifiers

In English we generally order modifiers in the following order: opinion-size-age-shape-colour-origin-material-purpose Noun. 

This is not a formal rule, but most generally follow it, even if they don't know it.

Ignore it at your own peril.
See http://www.metafilter.com/162206/Opinion-Size-Age-Shape-Colour-Origin-Material-purpose-Noun

Purpose of Church Services

 From Mike Cosper in The Gospel Coalition blog:

We must ask what’s at the center of our gatherings. Is it an emotional ride, led by a hip, handsome, and passionate rock star, followed by (to borrow a phrase from James K. A. Smith) “a 45-minute lecture from the smartest guy in the room,” or is the gathering focused on the Word of God, a Spirit-filled congregation singing “psalms, hymns, and spiritual songs” together, and the Lord’s Supper? Is the church a gathering and sending of saints, or a rally for a fan club?

The 20 Habits of Eventual Millionaires

by James Altucher 

This is the wrong question. It’s upside down.

This is a tacky question. This is sort of a rude question.

But this was a question on Quora. Actually, the question was a bit worse. It was “I’m in my 20s – can someone in their 40s tell me what I need to do to become a financial success?”

Maybe don’t look for shortcuts. Too many shortcuts is “death by a thousand cuts”.

Here’s a question: I’m in my 40s, can someone in their 20s tell me how to restore that feeling of lightness, no obligations and the feeling that “Enough” is a Feast?
Answer me that.

Here’s a question: I’m in my 20s, can someone tell me what success is?

Here’s another question: I’m lonely, can someone tell me how a ray of sunlight can remember that by itself it is nothing, but together it’s the Sun?

But ok. Another friend of mine wrote a good post on this topic. But I know him and how he made his millions and although his answer was good, it wasn’t how he made his money.

Money is not everything. It’s a side effect. It’s a byproduct. It’s nuclear waste after all the energy has already powered the Earth.

Focus just on the habits. Only the first half of the question.

Everyone needs different habits. If someone has an arm amputated he needs a new arm. Another person might need a new eye.

Another person needs to listen better.

20 Habits

I’m sorry. I was about to answer. But I need to define “habit”.

When I was lying in the gutter at 3 in the morning, drunk, and cars swerving around me, I needed first to be pulled to the sidewalk.

That was a habit. I couldn’t just wake up and be sober. I needed to be pulled to the side first. I needed consequences first. I needed one day at a time first. I needed to surrender control of the outcome first.

I needed to improve 1% a day and that never ends. I needed to remember I had two little girls to be a better person for.

And so on. “And so on” is a habit. It’s not a done thing. It’s never done.

20 Habits
– Every day, be around people who are kind to you and love you.

This is a difficult habit. So don’t sweat it. Just improve a little bit each day.

A bonsai tree grows every day. But the bonsai master knows where to prune to create a work of art over years.

– Every day, avoid death.

Which means: avoid things you know are bad for you. Be a little healthier each day. You can’t get rich from a hospital bed. Or a grave.

People think metabolism changes as we get older. This is not really true. What changes is we sit more. So move more.

– Solve difficult gratitude problems.

This is a practice. When angry, or stressed, find one thing to be grateful for. Where is the practice? Is this really so hard.

The hard part is noticing that you are angry and stressed. It’s the difference between being scared in a movie and saying, “wait, it’s just a movie”.

– Write down ten ideas a day.

I’ve written this a million times. Watch the movie “Limitless”. Bradley Cooper takes a pill that turns him into a superman of brain power. Writing down 10 ideas a day is that pill. Try it for six months and you will see.

– Plant seeds.

Many people have ONE GOAL in life. And they aim their lives for that one goal. Good luck with that.
The real key is to plant many seeds. 1% of the seeds planted will turn into 50% of the flowers.

That’s Garden Math.

What are some seeds?

Send a thank you letter. Send an intro letter. Send ideas to people. Exercise. Eat well. Surprise your spouse. Make a website. Come up with an idea. Write an article. Read a book. Think of 100 more seeds.

Every day plant some seeds.

– No excuses.

Blaming is draining. Complaining is draining. Explaining is draining.
People say, I don’t have enough time. I get that. For instance, I don’t have enough time to become a professional astronaut.

But even that excuse, which two seconds ago I thought was a truism, is false.

One day Virgin Galactic and SpaceX will send tourists into space for cheap. So one day I’ll be an astronaut.

I have enough time again. No excuses.

– Warren Buffett’s 5/25 rule.

Make a list of the 25 things you want to do in life. Now do the top 5. And NEVER THINK ABOUT THE OTHER 20 EVERY AGAIN.

Else they will take time away from the 5 that are most important to you.

– Follow up.

I’m really bad at this. Which is why I have to build a habit instead of “do this!”

The other day I had dinner with a bunch of interesting people. I have a perfect idea how to follow up with them.

But I havn’t done it yet. I don’t know why. It’s hard for me to follow up.

So it’s a practice. But I’ll do it. I want to get better at this habit.
Following up might be a “nice to meet you” email. Or maybe it’s buying them a first edition of their favorite book. Or maybe it’s one of the 10,000 things in between that.

– Stand next to the smartest person in the room.

Harold Ramis did it (Bill Murray). Steve Jobs did it (Steve Wozniak). Craig Silverstein did it. (who? Larry Page.) Kanye West did it (Jay-Z).

I’ve done it repeatedly. (Yoda). I have a motto: “I am the dumbest person in the room”. Then it helps me to find the smartest person in each room.

The smartest person in the room is going to do something. Watch what they do. Something special. Just follow them without asking questions.

– Do one thing every day you loved as a kid.

I loved to write. So I write every day. I loved being nice to girls. So I’m nice to women every day.
Other people loved sports. I didn’t.

– Ask questions.

Brian Grazer, the world famous movie produce or Apollo 13, Arrested Development, and about 100 other movies, would have “curiousity conversations”.
He’s simply call up anyone he wanted (the Dalai Lama, Steve Jobs, etc), explain who he was, and asked them questions.

That’s how he met Ron Howard (the smartest person in his room). That’s how they together started Imagine Entertainment. That’s how he’s now got the top show on TV (“Empire”).

– Make Mistakes.

I was teaching my daughter to serve harder. She had a good consistent serve. She never missed. But it was too soft. Easy to return.
So I said, “hit it so hard you have to grunt”.

She started missing. She was getting depressed. Every shot came in about 6 inches to the left of the box.

But then she adjusted. The shots started to hit in the box. And they were harder.

I asked her, “what was going on in your head?”

She said, “I saw I was hitting too much to the left so I moved it over.”

If she kept hitting her safe easy shot, she never would have improved.

Only mistakes made her improve. ONLY MISTAKES.

– Sleep.

Everyone has a different opinion on this. I sleep nine hours a night. Then I try to take a nap during the day.

Your brain is most active 2-5 hours after you wake up. Do your productive passion work then.

Stay away from people who claim they only need 3-5 hours a sleep a night. They are evil.

– Say “NO”

I used to travel a lot for meetings. None of them made money. Not a single one.

I remember one time sitting by the pool at a hotel in LA. That was fun. I drank and swam and drank and swam.

In between, I had meetings that went nowhere. Then I went back to my company.

How was LA.

Great.

One week wasted.

– A little every day

I want to write a novel.

I write a few paragraphs a day. I maybe tweak the outline every day. Guess what. If you write three paragraphs a day you’ll write four novels a year.

Three of them might be bad. Maybe ten of them will be bad. Maybe the first twenty will be bad.
That’s ok. That means in five years you will be a success. Because of “a little every day”.

– Don’t be in a rush.

I’ve interviewed about 150 successful people so far for my podcast. I don’t mean “financial success”. Again, money is a byproduct.

One thing in common: 10 – 20 years for an overnight success.
BUT…
Celebrate small successes.

Along the way to overnight success (20 years) you will have many many small successes.

You can only give yourself permission for the next one if you celebrate the small success. It gives reinforcement to all of these habits.

Plus, it’s fun. You know what I mean.

– Love

I don’t have to teach you what love is. But here’s what I try to do:

a. if it’s someone I don’t know, I pretend like they are going to die tomorrow. So I treat them with the love we treat someone who will not exist anymore.

b. if it’s someone I don’t like, I treat them the way a mother treats her child. I wish for their best, no matter what my personal feelings are.

c. if it’s someone I love but is not making me happy, I sincerely wish them the best for the future.

d. if it’s someone I love, I listen. I help. I surprise.

Often we pray to things that don’t exist. Often we meditate with invisible goals in mind. Often we believe in science fiction.
But right this second you can feel love, and that’s the only religion.

– Right now.

Every time I’ve had a problem in the future, it never came true.

Every time I’ve had a regret in the past, the regret kept me glued to the mud.

Right now you are dealt cards. No other hand before or after will help you right now.

So this is the only moment to focus on. Right now is best predictor of Right Life.

—
I said I had 20 habits. I can’t count that high. So I don’t know if this is true. I give myself permission to not be exact all the time.

Oh! That’s another habit: Give yourself permission to not always be right. Give yourself permission to not always be liked. Give yourself permission to not always be at peace. Give yourself permission to not be a success.
Then you will gradually have whatever you gave yourself permission “to not”.

—
Will these habits make you a millionaire? Yes. Definitely.

Will these habits make you a success? Yes.

But more important:
These habits will make you the sort of person who has these habits.

No longer will you be a single ray of light. You will be the sun.

Read More: The 100 Rules for Being an Entrepreneur