Probability and Risk

I have had several discussions in the last few days on the subject of probability and risk. One's view of the subject is a clear indication of maturity. Why? Things happen. Doo Doo Occurs.

Risk is a combination of probability of occurance and the impact of that occurance when it does occur. Some event or outcome that is a low probability but high impact can be a high risk (nuclear war).

Probability is usually used to find the most likely occurance or range of occurances. But a mature person looks at the "tails" of the curve. The tails never go all the way to zero (in a normal curve). There is still a finite probability that the really extreme outcome will occur. That means it WILL occur, eventually. Regardless of how many "normal" (middle of the curve) events have occurred.

Example 1: The Space Shuttle o-rings experienced blow-by on several launches. Middle of the curve. Don't worry about it! It finally had a blow-by that was aimed in the wrong direction. Tail of the curve...One shuttle down and seven dead astonauts.

Example 2: The Space Shuttle had between 30 and 70 insulation events. Middle of the curve. Don't worry about it! Finally had an insulation loss at just the right amount, at the right phase of flight, hitting tiles at just the right angle...One shuttle down and seven dead astonauts.

Example 3: Kennedy High School Electric Car Project gives demonstrations at Middle Schools to drum up enthusiam for the program. Lets kids who have learner permits drive the car around a parking lot. Lots of kids drive the car with no problems. Middle of the curve. Some decide to "hot rod it" at 20 Miles per hour. A little less middle of the curve, but the small accidents have no damage or injuries. Low impact. One girl decides to hot rod it, has a small accident, but there is a guard rail at head height. Tail of the curve...Dead on Impact.

This could go on...and on...and on! Maturity is displayed by an understanding that Doo Doo Occurs! The immature have not had enough tail-of-the-curve experiences to have a proper view of probability. They may understand the impact, but that is only half the risk.